We had a great timely discussion on the topic of NATO yesterday. Considering the pros of NATO (Peace in Europe, protection of allies, and promoting democracy), It is hard to believe that the current administration would think of leaving NATO or relinquishing its leadership role.
The member states that are only a member of NATO and not of the EU are the 6 European states of Albania, Iceland, North Macedonia, Norway, Turkey, the UK, Canada, and the U.S.
The NATO countries in 2022 (prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) contributing ≥2% of their GDP to defense were 6.
The NATO countries in 2024 contributing ≥2% of their GDP to defense were 23. See attachment.
The problems NATO had for a long time but are still relevant now the following:
- How to keep the U.S. committed to the defense of Europe.
- How to defend Europe at a human and financial cost that are acceptable to the U.S.
- How to get consensus on taking military action if the U.S. withdraws from NATO.
There was a group consensus to the following:
- There is a reciprocal benefit for the U.S. to be a member of NATO. A safe and prosperous Europe provides an economic advantage to both countries.
- Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO because that means a possible war against Russia. Since Russia is not match to NATO, Putin will use nuclear weapons.
- Ukraine should continue to be provided with military support to keep Russia from progressing further, or even to hit Russian territories.
- Trump’s plans relative to NATO, Ukraine, and Russia are not clear or understood. However, getting rid of Zelensky might open the door for negotiations on Trump’s terms. Even if the rare minerals deal is signed, it will take many years for the U.S. to benefit or recoup the money spent on Ukraine the last 3 years.
- The current administration’s positive view of Putin is dangerous and unprecedented.
- NATO can survive without the U.S. but they will pay a high cost to do so.
- Europe can be safe without the U.S. but it will have to get its defense plans ready soon.
Here is the National Opinion Ballot for NTAO: https://scri.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_brQy6BysxmjLSCO
Next week’s topic is Artificial intelligence. Here is the video link
Please remember that Dr. Jeffrey Morton will be joining us virtually next Tuesday at 7pm at the Winkler Center. Here is the survey to leave your question relative to NATO of any other topic we discussed in the previous 6 chapters: https://form.jotform.com/hmnassar/great-decisions-2025-questions
See you next Tuesday at 5:30pm for the room setup and 6pm for the start of the discussion.